TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Solana above ___ on July 24?
kalshi
polymarket

Solana above ___ on July 24?

Volume:
$9,148

70

 - Polymarket

70 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 24, 12:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73 to 73.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$314
N/A
N/A
$286
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

40

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 to 71.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$583
N/A
N/A
$577
Settled
No
polymarket

110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 to 72.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
No
polymarket

100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 to 76.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$113
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 to 77.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 to 75.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

$78 to 78.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

$68 to 68.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$45.9999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$46 to 46.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$47 to 47.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$48 to 48.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$50 to 50.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price will exceed various thresholds on July 24, 2026. Polymarket offers binary yes/no markets at $10 increments from $20–$120 using Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle closes at noon ET, while Kalshi offers a single bucket-style market measuring CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5 PM EDT, with each $1 price band resolving independently to Yes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), two different observation times (noon ET vs. 5 PM EDT), and two incompatible market structures (binary thresholds vs. price buckets) create systematic divergence in how identical SOL price movements resolve across platforms.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket resolves at noon ET using Binance; Kalshi resolves at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks. Price movements between noon and 5 PM, and differences between Binance and CF Benchmarks, will cause divergent outcomes. Do not cross-hedge or assume correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary yes/no structure with 12 discrete price thresholds ($20, $30, $40, $50, $60, $70, $80, $90, $100, $110, $120). Resolution uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close at exactly 12:00 PM ET on July 24. Each market resolves independently; only one outcome (Yes or No) per threshold. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Bucket-style market with 50 overlapping $1 price bands spanning $46–$93.9999+. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average observed before 5 PM EDT on July 24, 2026. All buckets containing the final price resolve to Yes simultaneously; buckets outside the final price resolve to No. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected in the 60 seconds immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 24, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range; the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the final averaged price. If no data is available or the data is incomplete at the expiration time, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies.

Frequently asked questions

The Solana price prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking whether SOL will trade above a specific price level on July 24, 2026. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants betting on Solana's future spot price. By monitoring both venues, you gain insight into how professional traders and retail participants view SOL's medium-term trajectory. The dashboard displays current odds, recent volume, and historical price movements, helping you understand market sentiment around this key date.

Prediction market odds represent the collective probability assigned by traders, which often diverges from current spot prices. While spot markets reflect immediate supply and demand, prediction markets embed forward-looking expectations about future price levels. Traders on this market are essentially betting on where Solana will settle by the resolution date, incorporating macroeconomic factors, on-chain activity, and regulatory developments. High odds suggest strong consensus that the price target will be reached, while lower odds indicate skepticism. These probabilities can serve as a useful cross-check against your own fundamental analysis.

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, changes in validator economics, shifts in institutional adoption, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. Regulatory announcements affecting SOL or the crypto sector could trigger sharp repricing. Macroeconomic events—interest rate decisions, inflation data, or risk-on/risk-off sentiment swings—often correlate with altcoin volatility. On-chain metrics such as transaction volume and developer activity may also influence trader conviction. Monitoring these signals helps you anticipate market moves and refine your position timing before the July 24 resolution date.