TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of the Solana cryptocurrency at a specific future moment, using a standardized data source to determine the outcome. The resolution depends on where the price falls within predefined brackets at the exact time specified.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market associated with the range that contains this average price resolves to 'Yes,' with all others resolving to 'No.' Price data is sourced exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the official value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. This methodology ensures consistency and objectivity in determining the outcome, despite variations in price data across different platforms.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the SOL price on Sep 25, 2026 that may differ from those found in traditional spot price expectations or analyst predictions. This market aggregates the views of many individual traders, potentially offering a more diverse and up-to-date perspective than a single analyst’s forecast. It’s important to remember that prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting, as traders profit from correctly anticipating the outcome. Comparing this market to polls or expert opinions can reveal interesting discrepancies and insights into market sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of the SOL price falling within that range on Sep 25, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations, driven entirely by supply and demand within the market.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the price of SOL as recorded by a widely-recognized and publicly available source at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. The contract corresponding to the price range containing the actual SOL price at that time will pay out, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor external sources for the official price as resolution approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 25, 2026. Major developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as significant upgrades to the blockchain, partnerships with large institutions, or changes in regulatory oversight, could all impact the SOL price. Broader macroeconomic factors, like shifts in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies are also likely to influence trading activity. Unexpected news regarding competing blockchain projects or security vulnerabilities within Solana could also cause substantial price fluctuations and shifts in this market.