TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of the cryptocurrency SOL on a specific date and time. The outcome depends on where the price falls within predefined brackets at the exact moment of evaluation, using a standardized measurement method to ensure consistency.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the one whose range encompasses this average value resolves to 'Yes.' Price data is sourced exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the official value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets share this resolution methodology, differing only in their respective price range thresholds.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where traders believe the price of SOL will be on September 18, 2026. These expectations can be compared to those found in traditional spot price forecasts from financial analysts and polling data. However, unlike polls that rely on stated opinions, this market aggregates predictions incentivized by financial stake. If a significant number of analysts predict a certain price range, we might see corresponding shifts in the odds within this market, though the dynamics aren’t always directly correlated.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price ranges. The prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own assessments of the future price, creating a dynamic and real-time reflection of market sentiment. The more contracts purchased for a specific price range, the higher the implied probability of SOL being within that range at the specified time.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the SOL price at 5pm EDT on September 18, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to contract holders based on whether the actual SOL price falls within the range they purchased a contract for. The platform uses publicly available data to determine the final price and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact the SOL price market. Major developments in the Solana blockchain's technology, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, could cause shifts in the odds. Broader macroeconomic trends, including changes in interest rates or inflation, and regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrencies could also play a role. Additionally, significant adoption of Solana by developers or large institutions, or conversely, negative news regarding its ecosystem, could all move this market considerably before Sep 18, 2026.