TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on June 29, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' official Real Time Index. The market divides the price spectrum into specific ranges, with each outcome representing a distinct price band for SOL.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching where the averaged price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of where Solana will settle, incorporating real-time spot prices, technical analysis, and macroeconomic factors. Unlike passive spot prices, which represent only the last transaction, this market aggregates forward-looking expectations across many participants with real financial stakes. Traders who believe SOL will trade higher or lower than the implied midpoint have incentive to trade, pushing odds toward equilibrium. Comparing these odds to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in consensus views or contrarian positioning.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and offers for each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform matches buyers and sellers, and the last traded price for each bracket becomes the visible market quote. Wider spreads indicate lower liquidity and higher uncertainty; tighter spreads suggest strong consensus. Participants can place limit or market orders to express their view on where SOL will trade, and prices adjust continuously as new trades execute and information flows into the market.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by where Solana trades at that specific moment. The winning bracket is verified against credible public sources once the event timestamp passes. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once data is confirmed, ensuring all participants receive results simultaneously and fairly.
Major catalysts for this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, Bitcoin price movements, Solana ecosystem developments, and broader crypto market sentiment shifts. Regulatory news affecting digital assets, changes in staking yields, or updates to the Solana network could drive significant repricing. Macroeconomic data releases and risk-on or risk-off sentiment in equities often correlate with crypto volatility. Technical levels and options expiry dates may also influence short-term price action, causing traders to adjust their positions and shift odds across the available price ranges.