TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the SOL/USD exchange rate on June 28, 2026 at 5 PM EDT, divided into specific price ranges. Participants predict which $1 band Solana will trade within, with ranges spanning from below $34 to above $107. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' official Real Time Index methodology.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 28, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price band, and exactly one resolves to Yes based on the average price. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The official and final value is calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration.
Prediction market odds and spot price expectations often diverge because they measure different things. Spot prices reflect current market transactions, while odds in this market encode forward-looking probability estimates about where SOL will be at a future date. Traders betting on specific price ranges are effectively forecasting volatility, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions. Comparing the implied price distribution from market odds to analyst price targets or technical analysis can reveal whether the crowd expects upside, downside, or consolidation relative to consensus views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform matches buyers and sellers, and the clearing price for each bracket reflects the marginal trader's willingness to accept risk at that odds level. As new information arrives or trader sentiment shifts, prices adjust dynamically. Tighter spreads indicate higher confidence in a particular range, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty about where SOL will settle.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning bracket is determined by where Solana's price falls at the designated time. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the price data is finalized, ensuring all participants receive results simultaneously and fairly.
Major catalysts affecting this market include Solana network upgrades, changes in developer activity, regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. Institutional adoption news, exchange listings, or security incidents can trigger sharp repricing. Market-wide risk-off sentiment often correlates with crypto selloffs, while positive sentiment around blockchain adoption or institutional inflows can drive rallies. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, venture funding rounds, and competing layer-one platforms as leading indicators of directional pressure on SOL.