TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 14, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range Solana (SOL) falls into at 5pm EDT on June 14, 2026. It divides the price spectrum into 75 consecutive bands to identify the exact range where SOL's price settles.
Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. The price is matched to one of 75 consecutive price bands, each spanning $1. Only one outcome resolves to Yes based on which band contains the averaged price. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for SOL.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will occur, while spot prices represent the current market value of an asset. This market aggregates thousands of individual forecasts into probability estimates for specific price ranges. Unlike spot prices, which react to immediate supply and demand, prediction odds incorporate longer-term sentiment and expectations about Solana's price movement. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders expect SOL to move significantly from current levels or remain relatively stable through the resolution window.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Solana price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract's price directly reflects the implied probability of that range occurring. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust, moving the odds in real time. The tighter the spread between buy and sell prices, the more confident the market is in that particular outcome.
This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by where Solana actually trades at that specific moment. The winning range is verified against credible public sources to confirm which price band SOL occupied. Traders holding contracts for the correct range receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is straightforward: the market simply checks the verified price and settles accordingly.
Major catalysts for Solana price movement include network upgrades, changes in developer activity, shifts in broader crypto market sentiment, and macroeconomic events affecting risk appetite. Regulatory announcements or security incidents could trigger sharp repricing. Competition from other Layer 1 blockchains and shifts in institutional adoption also influence SOL's trajectory. Real-time news flow, on-chain metrics, and Bitcoin price action typically drive the largest moves in this market, as traders continuously reassess their price range forecasts.