TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on July 5, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' official real-time pricing index. The market covers a wide range of price bands from below $44 to above $117.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 5, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the average price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about where SOL will settle at the specified time, often diverging from current spot prices because they factor in volatility, macro conditions, and event risk over the coming months. Spot prices represent only today's consensus, while this market embeds forward-looking sentiment across multiple price ranges. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to conventional expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the liquidity and conviction around each band, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and deeper participation. As new information surfaces—regulatory news, technical developments, or macro shifts—traders adjust their positions, moving the odds in real time until the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning price range is determined by where SOL trades at the specified moment, verified against established market data sources. All shares corresponding to the correct range pay out in full, while other positions expire worthless, making timing and price precision critical factors in this market's outcome.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting crypto markets, Solana network upgrades or security incidents, macroeconomic policy shifts, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements that typically correlate with SOL. Institutional adoption news, changes in staking yields, or shifts in developer activity on the Solana blockchain can also reshape trader expectations. Geopolitical events and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in equities often ripple through crypto, making this market sensitive to both crypto-specific and macro developments through July 2026.