TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on July 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index, divided into specific price ranges to allow traders to bet on which band SOL will trade within.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI calculated from 60 seconds of data immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. The price is divided into consecutive $1 ranges, spanning from below $51 to above $99. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on which range contains the averaged price at the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. This consistent $1 band structure provides clear price segmentation while maintaining granularity across the full expected price distribution for SOL.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. In this market, the odds reveal which price ranges traders find most likely by July 2026, incorporating their views on Solana's adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. Comparing these odds to traditional price targets from analysts or on-chain sentiment can highlight where the market consensus differs from expert opinion, helping you identify potential mispricings or consensus blind spots.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the cumulative belief in that range occurring. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the bid-ask spreads and contract prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market rates or place limit orders to wait for your target price.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the event occurs and the outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome will be determined by where SOL actually trades at that specific time, with the price confirmed against established market data sources. All other outcomes expire worthless, and holders of the correct range receive their payout based on the final contract price.
Major catalysts for this market include Solana network upgrades, changes in developer activity, shifts in institutional adoption, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. Regulatory announcements affecting crypto or Solana specifically, macroeconomic policy changes, and competing blockchain developments can all reshape trader expectations for SOL's price trajectory. Additionally, on-chain metrics like transaction volume and validator growth, as well as real-world adoption milestones, may influence how traders position themselves ahead of the July 2026 resolution date.