TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of Solana (SOL) cryptocurrency on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index. The market resolves based on which price band the average price falls into during the specified time.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 10, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching where the average price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts and implied volatility priced into derivatives markets. Traders on this market aggregate dispersed information about macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and on-chain activity to set odds that may lead or lag spot-price sentiment. When institutional or retail participants expect a move outside the current range, odds shift faster than traditional surveys, making them a real-time gauge of market conviction distinct from backward-looking price history.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the marginal probability traders assign to each outcome, with tighter spreads indicating higher consensus and wider spreads signaling uncertainty. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, and all trades settle in cash once the event outcome is verified.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning bracket is determined by Solana's price at the specified time, checked against established market data sources. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once pricing data becomes available.
Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance metrics, competing layer-one developments, and shifts in risk appetite across crypto markets. Regulatory announcements affecting digital assets, macroeconomic data influencing risk-off sentiment, and large on-chain transactions can all trigger repricing. Additionally, changes in Bitcoin and Ethereum valuations often correlate with Solana moves, as do shifts in institutional adoption and developer activity on the Solana ecosystem.