TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Solana (SOL) will reach or exceed various price thresholds on July 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT, with strike prices ranging from $45 to $94.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected in the 60 seconds immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 24, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; if the average price meets or exceeds that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no data is available or the data is incomplete at the expiration time, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies.
Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future spot prices, often diverging from current market rates. While spot exchanges show today's Solana price, this market embeds expectations about volatility, adoption catalysts, and macro conditions over the next 18 months. Traders who believe SOL will outperform consensus buy higher price ranges; those expecting weakness buy lower ranges. The odds here can serve as a forward-looking signal distinct from today's spot price, revealing whether the prediction market community expects appreciation or depreciation relative to current levels.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a particular price range for SOL at the specified time. The market price of each outcome reflects supply and demand; higher prices indicate stronger trader conviction. Participants can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, and the final odds at resolution reflect the last traded price across all outcome shares.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, once the Solana spot price at that moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual SOL price on major exchanges at 5pm EDT on July 24, 2026 against the predefined price ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout; all other positions expire worthless. Resolution is final once the price data is confirmed and the platform settles all positions accordingly.
Major catalysts for SOL price movement include Solana network upgrades, adoption milestones, regulatory developments affecting crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and competition from other layer-one blockchains. Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings often correlate with altcoin moves, so broader market sentiment matters significantly. Developer activity, validator growth, and real-world use cases on Solana can shift long-term expectations. Geopolitical events, central bank policy changes, and institutional inflows into crypto also influence trader positioning in this market over the 18-month horizon.