SOFR up or down for August 24, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the majority view. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to determine payouts, incentivizing accurate forecasting. As new information emerges — such as inflation data or Fed statements — participants adjust their positions, causing the odds to shift in response to real-time sentiment and trading volume of $1,851.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will reflect the official SOFR rate published for the relevant period, closing the market based on observable, authoritative data. Traders will see the result automatically reflected on Kalshi shortly after the rate is announced.

Several key signals could shift this market before it resolves, including Federal Reserve policy decisions, updates to inflation or employment data, and changes in market expectations for interest rates. Speeches from central bank officials, economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and shifts in bond market yields often influence trader sentiment. Any major surprise — whether from policy action or data releases — is likely to cause rapid adjustments in the odds.