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SOFR up or down for August 20, 2026?
kalshi

SOFR up or down for August 20, 2026?

Volume:
$1,028

Above 3.62%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.62% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.62%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,028
N/A
N/A
$1,002
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This event tracks whether a key benchmark interest rate will exceed a certain threshold by a specific future date, reflecting expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy. It provides insight into potential trends in borrowing costs and financial market behavior over the next several years. The outcome depends on the actual level of the rate when the specified date arrives.

Kalshi

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for August 20, 2026 is above 3.62%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR direction market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1,028. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the likelihood of SOFR being higher or lower at the specified future date. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity specific to this contract on Kalshi.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks. The current top trade indicates the most likely outcome as assessed by active participants. Trading volume of $1,028 helps gauge interest and liquidity, while price fluctuations respond to new information, trader sentiment, and shifts in related financial markets.

This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look to official announcements, economic data releases, and central bank communications to determine which side of the market is correct. The final settlement will reflect the actual direction of SOFR as recorded at the specified time, removing any ambiguity for participants.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including key Federal Reserve meetings, updates to U.S. Treasury yields, changes in monetary policy guidance, and major economic data releases such as inflation or employment reports. Geopolitical developments, market volatility, and shifts in investor risk appetite may also influence trader sentiment. Any unexpected policy moves or commentary from central bank officials are likely to generate rapid price adjustments.