SOFR up or down for August 17, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the market price reflecting the current balance of buy and sell orders. The top outcome’s chance percentage shows what the collective trading activity implies about the likelihood of each direction. Liquidity levels, represented by volume of $0, also influence how tightly prices are packed and how responsive they are to new information.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the official SOFR rate published for the relevant date, compared against the market’s defined criteria for ‘up’ or ‘down’. Until then, traders can adjust positions as new economic data, policy signals, or market movements emerge.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution. Key U.S. economic reports — such as nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, or Federal Reserve policy decisions — often reshape expectations for interest rates and can cause rapid repricing. Statements from central bank officials, unexpected shifts in bond yields, or even geopolitical developments that impact monetary policy outlooks may also influence trader sentiment and move odds in either direction leading up to Aug 25, 2026.