SOFR up or down for August 12, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine pricing through continuous bidding and asking, with the market price reflecting the aggregated expectations of all participants. The top outcome’s displayed chance represents the implied probability from the current bid-ask spread. Liquidity levels, recent news, and macro economic data all feed into how traders adjust their positions, shaping the real-time pricing dynamics of this market.

This market resolves around Aug 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official SOFR rate published for the relevant date, compared against the market’s defined threshold. Traders will see the settlement reflected automatically once the data is publicly available and meets reporting standards.

Key signals include Federal Reserve policy announcements, shifts in monetary policy guidance, and major economic data releases such as inflation reports or employment figures. Unexpected events like geopolitical tensions or sudden changes in financial conditions can also impact trader sentiment. As Aug 20, 2026 approaches, any information that alters expectations for short-term interest rates will likely cause noticeable movement in this market.