TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
SOFR for September 9, 2026
🌟New
kalshi

What will SOFR be on September 9, 2026?

Sep 9, 2026, 10:10 AM EST - Sep 17, 2026, 8:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$4,392
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$4,038
0%

Exactly 3.64%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.64% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 17, 2026

Time left: 07d:02h:55m

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 9, 2026 be exactly 3.64%?

52%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.64%

Trade
52%
Yes 76¢No 84¢
60¢
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$401
1w 2h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.63%

Trade
19%
Yes 27¢No 86¢
13¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
$404
1w 2h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.65%

Trade
17%
Yes 24¢No 86¢
10¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
1w 2h
active
kalshi

3.66% or Above

Trade
11%
Yes 29¢No 98¢
27¢
N/A
$1,005
N/A
N/A
$1,001
1w 2h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.62%

Trade
11%
Yes 45¢No 91¢
36¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$402
1w 2h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.61%

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
1w 2h
active
kalshi

3.60% or Below

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2,075
N/A
N/A
$1,826
1w 2h
active
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate for securing collateral. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate movements.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 9, 2026, drawn from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this single underlying data point, with each market defining a specific numerical threshold or range. If the reported SOFR matches the exact threshold defined by a market (e.g., exactly 3.61%, 3.62%, etc.) or falls within the specified range (e.g., at most 3.60% or at least 3.66%), that market resolves to Yes. No later revisions to the SOFR data will affect the outcome. The structure allows for precise, outcome-specific resolution across multiple potential rate values.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR interest rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, reflecting what traders believe the Secured Overnight Financing Rate will be on September 9, 2026. You can view the price history to see how expectations have shifted over time, and monitor the 24-hour volume to gauge recent trading activity. Currently, the volume is $4,392 and the total volume for this market is $4,392. The top outcome currently trading is whether the SOFR rate will be at most 3.60%.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in September 2026. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and can offer a different perspective than traditional polls or expert opinions. If analysts generally predict a certain range for the SOFR rate, this market will reflect whether traders agree or disagree with that assessment, and to what degree. Discrepancies between the two can be informative, potentially highlighting overlooked factors or biases in either approach.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future SOFR rate. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The current prices represent the collective wisdom of those trading in this market.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for September 9, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the accuracy of traders’ predictions. The resolution will be based on the official SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, representing the average overnight rate for repurchase agreements backed by Treasury securities. This ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market over the next couple of years. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as adjustments to the federal funds rate or quantitative tightening, would be major drivers. Unexpected inflation data, shifts in employment numbers, or geopolitical events that impact global economic stability could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any news regarding the health of the US economy or changes in market expectations for future growth will likely influence trading activity in this market.