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$1,438,389,636

404,028

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SOFR for September 22, 2026
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

What will SOFR be on September 22, 2026?

Volume:
$8,751

Exactly 3.87%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.87% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
$501
12h 15m
Yes
kalshi

3.82% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,351
N/A
N/A
$2,347
12h 15m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.84%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,742
N/A
N/A
$2,683
12h 15m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.83%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,890
N/A
N/A
$1,890
12h 15m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.85%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$150
12h 15m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$48
12h 15m
No
kalshi

3.88% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
12h 15m
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the cost of overnight funding for large financial institutions. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date helps market participants gauge future monetary policy impacts and economic conditions. These markets assess various potential SOFR values for September 22, 2026, allowing investors to bet on different possible outcomes.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for September 22, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, any subsequent revisions to the rate are disregarded for resolution purposes. Seven distinct outcomes are possible: a rate at most 3.82%, exactly 3.83%, exactly 3.84%, exactly 3.85%, exactly 3.86%, exactly 3.87%, or at least 3.88%. Each outcome corresponds to a specific market that will resolve to Yes if the reported rate matches the condition, with all other markets resolving to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of different SOFR rate outcomes, along with a price history showing how these probabilities have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $8,629, and the total volume traded to date, which is $8,751. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment regarding the future SOFR rate as expressed by traders on Kalshi.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in September 2026 vary, but generally cluster around a specific range. This market allows traders to express their own views, which may differ from the consensus of analysts. Comparing the implied probabilities from this market to those derived from surveys of economic forecasters can reveal whether the crowd believes the rate will be higher or lower than currently anticipated by experts. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations could indicate unique insights or differing risk assessments.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their bids and offers based on new information and their own expectations. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date sentiment regarding the future SOFR rate.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for September 22, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts corresponding to the actual SOFR rate determined by official sources. Traders should monitor official announcements from relevant financial authorities as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be determined and verified.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would be a major driver. Unexpected inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth figures could also shift expectations. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions can also influence the SOFR rate, as can any significant shifts in market sentiment regarding the overall health of the U.S. economy. Traders should closely follow these developments to assess potential impacts on the SOFR rate.