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SOFR for September 14, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on September 22, 2026?

Volume:
$4,933

Exactly 3.62%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.62% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.62%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,211
N/A
N/A
$1,128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.66% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,832
N/A
N/A
$1,520
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.63%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$860
N/A
N/A
$844
Settled
No
kalshi

3.60% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$830
N/A
N/A
$630
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.64%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.61%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.65%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 14, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the column labeled “Rate (%)”. All markets share this single underlying data point and will resolve based on whether the reported rate meets the specific numerical condition defined in each market’s primary rule. No later revisions to the reported SOFR will affect the resolution. The primary rules collectively cover a range of possible outcomes: one market resolves if the rate is at most 3.60%, six markets resolve if the rate exactly matches one of five specific values between 3.61% and 3.65%, and one market resolves if the rate is at least 3.66%. The resolution of each market depends solely on its defined threshold being met by the initially reported rate, with all secondary rules ensuring consistency across markets by referencing the same data source and disallowing revisions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR interest rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, providing a visual representation of where traders believe the rate will land on September 14, 2026. It also displays a price history chart, showing how the market has fluctuated over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4,933. Total volume for this market is $4,933. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific economic forecast.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often presented as point estimates or ranges. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a probabilistic view, showing the likelihood of different SOFR rates. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of various economic factors considered by each group. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect real-money stakes, potentially capturing a different level of conviction than publicly available opinions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future SOFR rate. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and the market price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that responds to new information and changing sentiment regarding the future interest rate.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for September 14, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the value of the SOFR rate as published by the Federal Reserve on that date. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements (including interest rate decisions and forward guidance), and unexpected shifts in employment figures are all likely to influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events and broader economic shocks could also play a role. Any news that alters expectations about the future path of monetary policy is likely to cause fluctuations in the odds within this market, as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information.