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SOFR for September 11, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on September 11, 2026?

Volume:
$4,600

Exactly 3.62%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.62% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.62%

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$822
N/A
N/A
$709
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.60% or Below

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,294
N/A
N/A
$2,262
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.61%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$602
N/A
N/A
$527
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.63%

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$516
N/A
N/A
$516
Settled
No
kalshi

3.66% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$366
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.64%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.65%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average cost of borrowing cash overnight secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate movements.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 11, 2026, drawn from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this underlying data source, with later revisions disregarded for resolution purposes. Market outcomes are determined by whether the reported SOFR meets specific numerical conditions: one market triggers if the rate is at most 3.60%, five markets each trigger if the rate exactly matches 3.61%, 3.62%, 3.63%, 3.64%, or 3.65%, and the final market triggers if the rate is at least 3.66%. The structure allows for precise, mutually exclusive outcomes covering the full range of possible SOFR values for the specified date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR interest rate market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the SOFR rate on September 11, 2026. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to pay or accept for contracts predicting different rate levels. The dashboard also shows the price history, allowing you to see how expectations have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,757. Total volume for this market is $4,600.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for a date as far in the future as September 11, 2026, are subject to considerable uncertainty and revision. While many analysts offer projections for interest rates, these are often based on economic models and assumptions that may change significantly. This market provides a real-time assessment of expectations based on actual money being wagered, offering a potentially different perspective than traditional forecasts. It reflects the collective judgment of traders, which may incorporate information not fully captured in standard economic analyses.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the corresponding SOFR rate being realized on September 11, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own assessments of the future, leading to a dynamic and responsive market. The current prices represent the market’s best estimate of the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR interest rate for September 11, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the value of 100 for the outcome that matches the officially reported SOFR rate. All other outcomes will settle to 0. The final rate will be sourced from publicly available data and widely recognized financial reporting sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.

Numerous economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Key factors include changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and unexpected shifts in economic growth. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions also play a role, as they can influence investor sentiment and expectations for future interest rates. Strong employment reports or surprising consumer spending data could also cause substantial movement in the market, as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.