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SOFR for September 1, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on September 1, 2026?

Volume:
$4,623

3.66% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.66% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.66% or Above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.60% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,241
N/A
N/A
$1,241
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.61%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,011
N/A
N/A
$1,011
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.62%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$329
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.63%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.64%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.65%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate for securing collateral. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 1, 2026, drawn from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this single underlying data point, and later revisions are disregarded. Each market has a distinct resolution criterion: one resolves if the rate is at most 3.60%, six resolve if the rate matches exactly 3.61% through 3.65%, and the final market resolves if the rate is at least 3.66%. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the reported SOFR meets its specific condition on the specified date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR interest rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate ranges on September 1, 2026. You'll find a dynamic price display reflecting what traders are willing to pay or accept for contracts predicting the rate, along with a history of price movements over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume of $4,623, giving an indication of recent market activity. Total volume traded to date is $4,623.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where the SOFR rate will land on September 1, 2026. It's interesting to compare this to traditional analyst forecasts from major financial institutions. While analysts often publish point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a continuously updated probability distribution. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information, and may signal potential market inefficiencies.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders submit bids (what they’re willing to pay to buy a ‘yes’ contract) and asks (what they’re willing to accept to sell a ‘yes’ contract). The price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market's assessment of the probability that the SOFR rate will fall within a specific range on the resolution date. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks in response to new information and their own evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for September 1, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to contract holders based on whether the actual SOFR rate falls within the range specified by their contract. The exact payout will depend on the specific contract purchased and the final SOFR rate. Traders should review the contract details on Kalshi for complete information.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Key indicators like inflation reports (CPI, PPI), employment data, and Federal Reserve policy announcements will be closely watched. Unexpected changes in these areas could lead traders to revise their expectations for future interest rates. Geopolitical events, shifts in global economic growth, and even statements from Federal Reserve officials could also influence trading activity and price movements in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of the SOFR interest rate market.