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SOFR for October 9, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 20, 2026?

Volume:
$6,866

Exactly 3.87%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.87% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$49
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,107
N/A
N/A
$5,064
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$769
N/A
N/A
$768
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$350
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
$265
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
$67
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46
N/A
N/A
$45
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate movements.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026, taken from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table in the “Rate (%)” column. No later revisions to the reported rate will affect the outcome. Seven distinct outcomes are possible: a rate at most 3.85%, exactly 3.86%, exactly 3.87%, exactly 3.88%, exactly 3.89%, exactly 3.90%, or at least 3.91%. Each outcome corresponds to a specific market, and the market resolving to 'Yes' for any one of these conditions determines the event’s final resolution. The focus is strictly on the exact numerical match or range specified, with precision and initial reporting date being critical factors.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the SOFR rate that may differ from traditional analyst expectations. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. Do analysts anticipate a similar rate as reflected in this market, or do they foresee different economic conditions influencing the SOFR rate? Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential economic shifts.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the SOFR rate. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific rate occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. As more traders participate, the prices tend to become more efficient, representing a collective forecast of the future SOFR rate.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 9, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the SOFR rate, based on the contract they purchased. The final rate will be determined by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and that data will be used to settle all outstanding contracts in this market. Traders should monitor economic indicators leading up to the resolution date.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would be a major driver. Unexpected inflation data, employment reports, and geopolitical events could also influence expectations for the SOFR rate. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the bond market or broader economic outlook could cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.