What will SOFR be on October 8, 2026?

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of traders on Kalshi. These predictions are often contrasted with surveys of economists and financial analysts, who provide point estimates and ranges for the SOFR rate. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, and biases. It's valuable to consider both sources when forming an informed view of the likely SOFR rate.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and offers for contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as profitable trading opportunities arise from discrepancies between their beliefs and the market’s consensus. This dynamic process leads to a real-time estimation of the SOFR rate, driven by the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 8, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The contract corresponding to the actual SOFR rate will pay out $1.00, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for the definitive SOFR rate, as this will be the basis for determining the market’s resolution.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and, consequently, the SOFR rate. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy guidance from the Federal Reserve, or significant geopolitical events impacting the global economy, could also trigger substantial price movements. Changes in market sentiment regarding the strength of the US economy will also play a role in shaping the SOFR rate market.