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SOFR for October 7, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 15, 2026?

Volume:
$5,282

Exactly 3.88%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.88% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 8, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,614
N/A
N/A
$1,613
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,239
N/A
N/A
$1,234
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,201
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,108
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets to set the cost of borrowing funds overnight secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, reflecting broader views on future economic conditions and Federal Reserve actions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 7, 2026, drawn from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, subsequent revisions to the rate are disregarded for resolution purposes. Seven distinct outcome categories cover the full spectrum of possible SOFR values: a Yes outcome occurs if the rate is at most 3.85%, exactly 3.86%, exactly 3.87%, exactly 3.88%, exactly 3.89%, exactly 3.90%, or at least 3.91%. Any SOFR value falling within these defined thresholds triggers a Yes resolution, with no overlap or ambiguity among the categories due to their mutually exclusive, precisely bounded ranges.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current odds of the SOFR rate for October 7, 2026 being at or below a certain percentage. You can view the price history to see how expectations have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $5,274. The total volume traded in this market is $5,282. This provides a clear picture of where traders stand on the future SOFR rate and how actively it's being traded.

Currently, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in October 2026 are varied, with estimates ranging across a spectrum of potential values. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the prediction market and analyst forecasts can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or simply varying interpretations of economic indicators. Comparing this market's implied probability to those forecasts provides a unique insight into market sentiment.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the SOFR rate will be at or below a specific level. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market collectively believes is the most likely scenario. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 7, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the SOFR rate was at or below the specified level. The final rate will be sourced from publicly available data and will be the determining factor for settlement. Traders should monitor official announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand the final outcome.

Several economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative tightening, will be closely watched. Unexpected inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth figures could also cause traders to reassess their expectations for the SOFR rate. Geopolitical events and shifts in global economic conditions could also play a role, impacting investor sentiment and risk appetite. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.