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$1,948,184,939

411,211

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4,440

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5

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SOFR for October 5, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 5, 2026?

Volume:
$11,680

Exactly 3.89%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.89% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,414
N/A
N/A
$5,152
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,193
N/A
N/A
$1,181
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
$684
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
$46
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used widely in financial markets as a reference for various loans and securities. On October 5, 2026, various markets will determine whether the rate falls within specific narrow bands or exceeds certain thresholds. These outcomes reflect expectations about future monetary policy and economic conditions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for October 5, 2026, taken from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table in the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this single underlying data source, and later revisions to the reported rate are disregarded. Seven distinct outcome markets cover a range of possibilities: one market resolves to Yes if the rate is at most 3.85%, another if it is at least 3.91%, and five additional markets each resolve to Yes if the rate matches one of the exact values—3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, or 3.90%. No market pays out if the rate falls between 3.85% and 3.91% without matching any of the specified exact figures.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Currently, this market suggests a different view than many traditional economic forecasts, which generally anticipate a more stable interest rate environment. However, it's important to note that analysts’ predictions are often based on models and assumptions that may not fully capture all relevant factors, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data or unforeseen events.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rates at any time. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific SOFR rate occurring on October 5, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding future interest rates.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 5, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the official SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All other contracts will settle to 0. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the winning outcome based on publicly available data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected inflation data releases, shifts in Federal Reserve policy statements, geopolitical events impacting global economic stability, and major changes in employment figures are all potential catalysts. Stronger-than-expected economic growth could lead traders to anticipate higher SOFR rates, while a recessionary environment might push expectations lower. Any news that alters perceptions of the future economic outlook could trigger substantial price movements in this market.