What will SOFR be on November 9, 2026?

Currently, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in October 2026 are varied, with estimates ranging based on economic models and anticipated Federal Reserve policy. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. While analyst forecasts provide expert opinions, this market aggregates a wider range of information and incentives, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive prediction. Comparing the implied probability of outcomes in this market to the distribution of analyst expectations can reveal interesting insights.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes at any time. The prices reflect the current supply and demand for each outcome, and these prices are directly translated into implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly anticipating the eventual SOFR rate. The more traders participate, the more efficient the price discovery process becomes, leading to a market-based forecast.

This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 30, 2026, is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts corresponding to the actual SOFR rate at that time. Traders who correctly predicted the SOFR rate will receive a payout based on the contract’s value at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. It’s a straightforward determination based on a publicly available data point.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements (including interest rate decisions and forward guidance), and unexpected shifts in economic growth could all cause traders to reassess their expectations for the SOFR rate. Geopolitical events and major shifts in global financial markets could also play a role. Any news that alters the perceived path of monetary policy is likely to move the market, as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information.