TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SOFR for October 29, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on November 6, 2026?

Volume:
$2,084

Exactly 3.89%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.89% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$714
N/A
N/A
$714
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$614
N/A
N/A
$614
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

3.95% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

3.88% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$109
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.91%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.92%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.93%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 46m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.94%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 46m
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise ranges or exceed specific thresholds by a set date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 29, 2026, as listed in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the column labeled “Rate (%)”. All markets share this underlying data source and agree that subsequent revisions to the reported SOFR will not affect the resolution. Each market has a distinct resolution condition: one resolves if the rate is at most 3.88%, six resolve if the rate matches exactly one of the values from 3.89% to 3.94%, and the final market resolves if the rate is at least 3.95%. The outcome of each market depends solely on where the initially reported rate falls relative to these specified thresholds or exact values.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate outcomes for October 29, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,084. The total volume traded in this market is $2,084. The dashboard also highlights the outcome currently favored by traders, though at this time, no top outcome has emerged with a significant chance percentage.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect what traders believe the SOFR rate will be on October 29, 2026, based on their own analysis and expectations. Comparing this to analyst forecasts reveals whether the market anticipates similar outcomes to those predicted by economic experts. If analysts broadly expect a rate of, for example, 4.00%, we would see a higher price for contracts predicting that rate in this market. Significant discrepancies could indicate disagreement with conventional wisdom or the incorporation of unique information by market participants.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and offers for contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of the economic outlook, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. This creates a real-time estimate of market expectations for the SOFR rate.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 29, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the holders of contracts corresponding to the confirmed SOFR rate. The resolution will be based on the official rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Key indicators like inflation reports, employment data, and Federal Reserve policy announcements will all influence expectations for future interest rates. Unexpected shifts in these indicators could lead to rapid price adjustments in the SOFR rate market. Geopolitical events and changes in global economic conditions could also play a role, as these factors can impact the overall economic outlook and monetary policy decisions. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding potential market movements.