TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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SOFR for October 28, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on November 5, 2026?

Volume:
$1,696

Exactly 3.94%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.94% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.94%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
2d 14h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
$521
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
$521
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.91%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
$521
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

3.95% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.93%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
$35
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

3.88% or Below

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.92%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 31m
No
Total markets: 8

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used widely in financial markets as a reference for various loans and securities. Predicting its level on a specific future date helps market participants gauge future monetary policy impacts and economic conditions. These markets allow stakeholders to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise ranges or exceed specific thresholds by a set date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the column labeled “Rate (%)”. All markets share this single underlying data point, and later revisions to the reported SOFR will not affect the outcome. Each market has a distinct resolution criterion: one resolves if the rate is at most 3.88%, another if it is exactly 3.89%, and so on through exactly 3.94%, with the final market resolving if the rate is at least 3.95%. The outcome of each market depends solely on where the initial SOFR publication falls relative to these specific thresholds or exact values.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the SOFR rate in late 2026. It’s important to note that these odds represent a different form of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the views of many individuals, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. If analyst forecasts consistently differ from the probabilities seen in this market, it could indicate disagreement about underlying economic conditions or expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Comparing the two provides a broader view of potential outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (prices they are willing to buy) and asks (prices they are willing to sell) for contracts representing the outcome of the SOFR rate on October 28, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the bids and asks adjust, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. This allows the market to reflect evolving expectations about future interest rates.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 28, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the SOFR rate will be at or above a certain threshold, as defined by the contract terms on Kalshi. Resolution will be based on the official SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in macroeconomic data, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will likely influence expectations about future Federal Reserve policy. Statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policy will also be closely watched. Unexpected geopolitical events or financial crises could also introduce uncertainty and volatility, causing shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news affecting the overall health of the US economy has the potential to move the SOFR rate market.