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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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SOFR for October 27, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on November 4, 2026?

Volume:
$12,922

3.92% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.92% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.92% or Above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,141
N/A
N/A
$4,131
1d 9h 49m
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,544
1d 9h 49m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,544
1d 9h 49m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,544
1d 9h 49m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,544
1d 9h 49m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.91%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,544
1d 9h 49m
No
kalshi

3.86% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,061
N/A
N/A
$1,061
1d 9h 49m
No
Total markets: 7

Description

These markets track possible outcomes for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) on a specific future date, reflecting expectations about interest rate levels. Each market corresponds to a different potential rate value or range that SOFR might attain. The resolution depends on the officially reported rate for that date, without considering later revisions.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 27, 2026, as listed in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Each market corresponds to a specific rate value or range: one market resolves to Yes if the rate is at most 3.86%, another if it is exactly 3.87%, and so on through exactly 3.91%, with a final market resolving to Yes if the rate is at least 3.92%. No later revisions to the reported SOFR will affect the outcome. The resolution hinges solely on the exact numerical match or range specified for each market against the initially published rate.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the SOFR rate on October 27, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $12,922. The total volume traded in this market is $12,922. This allows you to see how actively traders are engaging with the question of where the SOFR rate will land on that specific date. The top outcome currently being traded is Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 27, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in late 2026. However, the collective prediction of traders in this market represents a forward-looking assessment of the probability of different rate levels. If analysts broadly anticipate a certain range for the SOFR rate, we would expect to see higher trading volume and therefore greater price movement towards those levels in this market. Discrepancies between the market price and analyst expectations could indicate disagreement about the economic factors influencing the rate.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can place buy and sell orders at any time. The price reflects the probability of a particular outcome being true. As more traders buy into a specific outcome, its price increases, and the probability implied by the price rises accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations about the future SOFR rate. The current price is determined solely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 27, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the SOFR rate on that date. The exact payout amount will depend on the final price of the winning outcome at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the SOFR rate announcement to understand when the market will be settled.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Key indicators like inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and employment data releases will all influence expectations about future interest rates, including the SOFR rate. Unexpected economic shocks, such as geopolitical events or major financial disruptions, could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Changes in the overall economic outlook, as reflected in GDP growth forecasts, will also play a role in shaping trader sentiment and impacting the price of this market.