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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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SOFR for October 26, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on November 3, 2026?

Volume:
$53,528

3.91% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.91% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,024
N/A
N/A
$9,138
14h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,900
N/A
N/A
$6,447
14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,602
N/A
N/A
$5,701
14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,321
N/A
N/A
$5,701
14h 31m
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
$5,701
14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
$5,701
14h 31m
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
$5,701
14h 31m
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate movements.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 26, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the column labeled “Rate (%)”. All markets share this same underlying data source and rule that later revisions of the reported SOFR will not affect the resolution. Each market has a specific numerical threshold or range: one market resolves if the rate is at most 3.85%, five markets resolve if the rate matches exactly 3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, or 3.90%, and the final market resolves if the rate is at least 3.91%. The outcome of each market depends solely on whether the reported SOFR for that date meets its respective condition.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the SOFR rate on October 26, 2026. It displays the price of contracts representing different rate levels, allowing traders to see the market’s expectation. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $53,528, and the total volume traded to date, which stands at $53,528. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the future SOFR rate.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions embedded in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. Economic forecasts for dates several years in the future are subject to considerable uncertainty and revision. While analysts offer projections for the SOFR rate, these are often based on complex models and assumptions that may differ from the collective wisdom expressed by traders in this market. It's important to remember that this market reflects a probabilistic view of the future, aggregating the insights of many participants, rather than a single point estimate.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy a 'yes' contract) and asks (the price they are willing to sell a 'yes' contract). The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the probability of the SOFR rate reaching a specific level. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the implied probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the SOFR rate for October 26, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 if the actual SOFR rate matches one of the offered contract levels, and to 0 otherwise. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding the SOFR rate to understand the final outcome and settlement of this market. The resolution process will be based on publicly available data.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as adjustments to the federal funds rate or quantitative tightening, would likely cause fluctuations. Unexpected inflation data, strong or weak employment reports, and geopolitical events could also influence trader sentiment and move the market. Furthermore, any revisions to economic growth forecasts or shifts in market expectations regarding future interest rate hikes or cuts will be closely watched and reflected in the price of contracts within this market.