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$1,739,090,488

444,140

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34,296

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SOFR for October 23, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on November 2, 2026?

Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$10,465
Volume 24h:
$3,664
1,510%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$9,670
49%

3.91% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.91% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 07d:01h:26m

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 23, 2026 be at least 3.91%?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% High Projected APY: 1,348% 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.91% or Above

Trade
95%
Yes 95¢No 9¢
4¢
N/A
$2,627
211%
N/A
$2,268
1w 1h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
6¢
N/A
$384
8%
N/A
$267
1w 1h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

Trade
2%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$60
0%
N/A
$43
1w 1h
active
kalshi

3.85% or Below

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,552
0%
N/A
$5,552
1w 1h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,678
3,411%
N/A
$1,397
1w 1h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$93
9,200%
N/A
$72
1w 1h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$72
0%
N/A
$72
1w 1h
active
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used widely in financial markets to set the cost of borrowing and lending overnight funds. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, reflecting broader views on future economic conditions and central bank actions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 23, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, subsequent revisions to the rate will not affect the outcome. The market consists of seven distinct outcome categories: a rate of 3.85% or below, exact rates of 3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, and 3.90%, and a rate of 3.91% or above. Each category has a specific resolution criterion, and only one market will resolve to Yes depending on where the reported SOFR falls within these defined ranges or exact values. The structure ensures precise alignment with the actual reported rate, without adjustment for any later updates.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate outcomes for October 23, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has valued different rates over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $3,523. The total volume traded in this market is $10,465. The dashboard also highlights the outcome with the highest probability as determined by traders on Kalshi.

Currently, the collective predictions within this market offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for interest rates. While many analysts predict a range of potential SOFR rates for October 2026, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. It’s important to note that prediction market prices reflect not just the *expected* value, but also the *uncertainty* surrounding that value, which may differ from point estimates provided by economic forecasts. Do analysts anticipate a similar rate as reflected in this market?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy a contract) and asks (the price they are willing to sell). Contracts represent a payout of $1 per share if the SOFR rate on October 23, 2026, matches the contract’s specified rate. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific SOFR rate occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the SOFR rate for October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out $1.00 for each share held of the contract corresponding to the actual SOFR rate reported by official sources. All contracts for rates differing from the actual rate will pay out $0.00. Traders should monitor official announcements from relevant financial authorities as the resolution date approaches to understand the final outcome.

Several economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Major shifts in US monetary policy, such as announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments or quantitative tightening, would likely cause price movements. Unexpected inflation data, changes in employment figures, or geopolitical events impacting global economic stability could also drive trading activity. Any news that alters expectations about the future path of interest rates has the potential to move the SOFR rate market considerably before Nov 2, 2026.