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SOFR for October 22, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 30, 2026?

Volume:
$17,964

Exactly 3.90%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.90% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
$375
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,080
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,948
N/A
N/A
$3,170
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,111
N/A
N/A
$2,111
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,809
N/A
N/A
$904
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,309
N/A
N/A
$1,306
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations about interest rate movements. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise ranges or exceed specific thresholds by a set date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for October 22, 2026, taken from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table in the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, subsequent revisions to the rate are disregarded for resolution purposes. Seven distinct outcome categories cover the full spectrum of possible SOFR values: rates at most 3.85%, exactly 3.86%, exactly 3.87%, exactly 3.88%, exactly 3.89%, exactly 3.90%, and rates at least 3.91%. A market resolves to Yes if the actual reported SOFR matches the condition defined for that specific outcome category.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of the SOFR rate being at or above a specific level on October 22, 2026. You’ll see the current odds, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $17,819. The total volume traded in this market is $17,964. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to future interest rate expectations.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in October 2026 are varied, reflecting uncertainty about future economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy. These forecasts typically come from major financial institutions and economic research groups. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It will be interesting to observe how the predictions within this market evolve as we approach Oct 30, 2026 and how they compare to the consensus views of economic analysts.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when there's a matching price. The price reflects the probability of the SOFR rate reaching a specified level on the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined entirely by supply and demand from traders on the exchange; there are no external factors influencing the pricing mechanism. As more traders participate, the price should theoretically converge towards a more accurate reflection of the true probability.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 22, 2026, is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the SOFR rate would be at or above the specified level. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Federal Reserve as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about any potential factors that could influence the final rate.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Changes in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be closely watched. Statements and actions by the Federal Reserve, including interest rate decisions and forward guidance, will also have a major impact. Unexpected economic shocks, such as geopolitical events or significant shifts in employment figures, could also cause substantial price fluctuations in this market before Oct 30, 2026.