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SOFR for October 2, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 2, 2026?

Volume:
$3,253

Exactly 3.88%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.88% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
$169
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,142
N/A
N/A
$1,145
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$307
N/A
N/A
$304
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$152
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$171
N/A
N/A
$157
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used widely in financial markets to set the cost of borrowing overnight funds. On October 2, 2026, various markets will determine whether SOFR falls within specific narrow ranges or hits exact percentage points. These outcomes reflect expectations about future monetary policy and economic conditions influencing short-term lending rates.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for October 2, 2026, sourced from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, subsequent revisions to the rate are disregarded for resolution purposes. Seven distinct outcome categories cover a spectrum of possible SOFR values: one market resolves to Yes if the rate is at most 3.85%, five markets resolve to Yes if the rate matches exactly 3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, or 3.90%, and one final market resolves to Yes if the rate is at least 3.91%. The resolution depends solely on where the initial reported rate falls within this defined structure of thresholds and exact matches.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the SOFR rate on October 2, 2026. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $726. Total volume for this market is $3,253. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to future interest rate expectations.

Currently, it’s difficult to make a direct comparison between prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate. While economic analysts regularly publish predictions about interest rate movements, these forecasts often represent a central tendency or a range of possibilities, rather than a probabilistic assessment like this market provides. It's possible that this market will reflect a different view than those expressed in standard economic reports, representing the collective wisdom of traders focused specifically on this outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the SOFR rate. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the probability of different outcomes. The current market price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific SOFR rate on the resolution date.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 2, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All other contracts will settle to 0. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Federal Reserve for the definitive resolution of this market.

Several economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Key indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), employment reports, and Federal Reserve policy announcements will be closely watched. Unexpected changes in these data points, or shifts in the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions also have the potential to impact market sentiment and influence trading activity in this market.