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SOFR for October 19, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 27, 2026?

Volume:
$9,246

3.91% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.91% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,039
N/A
N/A
$5,870
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,207
N/A
N/A
$1,238
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in the U.S. financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 19, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the column labeled “Rate (%)”. All markets share this same underlying data source and rule that later revisions to the reported SOFR will not affect the outcome. Each market has a specific resolution condition: one market resolves if the rate is at most 3.85%, six markets resolve if the rate matches exactly 3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, 3.90%, or 3.91%, and the final market resolves if the rate is at least 3.91%. The exact value of the SOFR on that date determines which market settles as the winner, with only one market resolving to “Yes” based on the precise figure reported.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate outcomes for October 19, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how these probabilities have changed over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $9,246. The total volume traded on this market is $9,246. The dashboard also highlights the outcome currently favored by traders, which is Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 19, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?, though the chance percent is currently unavailable.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in October 2026. However, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of perspectives and can reflect real-time adjustments to expectations based on incoming economic data. If analysts generally anticipate a stable interest rate environment, we might see higher probabilities assigned to outcomes near the current SOFR level. Conversely, if forecasts suggest significant shifts, this market will likely reflect increased probabilities for higher or lower rates. It’s a dynamic comparison.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes at any time. The prices reflect the collective assessment of market participants regarding the likelihood of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at various price points, providing insight into the level of conviction behind different predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 19, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts corresponding to the actual SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The exact payout value will depend on the price of the winning contract at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Federal Reserve for the definitive SOFR rate.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be closely watched. Federal Reserve policy announcements, including any indications of future interest rate adjustments, will also be major drivers. Unexpected economic shocks, such as geopolitical events or significant shifts in employment figures, could also cause substantial movements in the probabilities reflected in this market. Overall economic growth and any changes in the Federal Reserve's outlook will be crucial.