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SOFR for October 16, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 26, 2026?

Volume:
$6,498

3.91% or Above

 - Kalshi

3.91% or Above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,600
N/A
N/A
$5,600
Settled
No
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$865
N/A
N/A
$850
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise ranges or exceed specific thresholds by a set date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 16, 2026, drawn from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, subsequent revisions to the rate are disregarded for resolution purposes. Seven distinct outcome categories cover the full spectrum of possible SOFR values: rates at or below 3.85%, exact matches for 3.86%, 3.87%, 3.88%, 3.89%, and 3.90%, and rates at or above 3.91%. Each category has a corresponding "Yes" resolution condition, ensuring that exactly one market will resolve positively while all others resolve negatively, creating a zero-sum structure where the collective outcomes must mutually exclude one another.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate outcomes for October 16, 2026. You'll find a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $886. The total volume traded in this market is $6,498. The dashboard also highlights the outcome currently favored by traders, though as of this moment, no top outcome has emerged with a significant chance percentage.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Currently, analysts’ forecasts for the SOFR rate on October 16, 2026, are varied, with estimates ranging from 3.75% to 4.25%. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies between the two can indicate areas where the market anticipates factors not fully accounted for in traditional analyses, or vice versa. It’s a valuable exercise to consider both viewpoints when assessing potential outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices adjust, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current prices represent the collective wisdom of those trading in this market, offering a unique view on future interest rates.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts corresponding to the actual SOFR rate published by relevant authorities. Traders will be able to see which contracts were winners and losers based on this official data release. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available information.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth data, will likely influence trader sentiment. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, including statements regarding interest rate hikes or cuts, are also key catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global financial conditions could also impact the SOFR rate and, consequently, the prices in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.