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SOFR for October 15, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 23, 2026?

Volume:
$5,208

Exactly 3.89%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.89% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,600
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,600
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to speculate or hedge against potential outcomes for the rate on October 15, 2026.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 15, 2026, as listed in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. Once reported, any subsequent revisions to the SOFR value will not affect the resolution. The market has seven distinct outcomes, each corresponding to a specific range or exact value of the SOFR: one outcome for rates at most 3.85%, five outcomes for exact rates of 3.86% through 3.90%, and one outcome for rates at least 3.91%. The resolution depends solely on where the initially reported rate falls within these defined categories.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various SOFR rate outcomes for October 15, 2026. You can view the trading volume, which is currently $5,208, and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $5,208. The dashboard also displays the price history, allowing you to analyze how the market has priced in information over time. Currently, the most actively traded outcome is Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 15, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?, though its chance percentage is not yet available.

Comparing the odds in this market to analyst forecasts reveals how traders weigh economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Currently, it's important to note that analysts' predictions for the SOFR rate in October 2026 vary, with estimates ranging depending on inflation and employment data. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe is most likely, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional surveys or individual analyst reports. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts could signal unique insights or differing risk assessments.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the implied probability of the SOFR rate being a specific value on October 15, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The current volume of $5,208 indicates the level of participation and interest in this particular market. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 15, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The outcome will be determined by the official rate, and any discrepancies will be resolved based on the publicly available data. Traders should monitor official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will heavily influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Any statements or actions from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy will also be crucial. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also impact the SOFR rate and, consequently, trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors will be essential for understanding price fluctuations.