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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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SOFR for October 14, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 22, 2026?

Volume:
$3,953

3.85% or Below

 - Kalshi

3.85% or Below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,600
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$241
N/A
N/A
$221
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate for securing collateral. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 14, 2026, as published in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this underlying data source, and subsequent revisions to the reported SOFR will not affect the outcome. Each market has a specific resolution condition: one market resolves if the rate is at most 3.85%, another if it is exactly 3.86%, and so on, with separate markets for each exact percentage from 3.86% to 3.90%, and a final market resolving if the rate is at least 3.91%. Only the exact market condition corresponding to the reported SOFR value will resolve to Yes; all others resolve to No. This structure allows for precise betting on narrow interest rate outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SOFR rate market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the SOFR rate on October 14, 2026. You’ll find a dynamic price display reflecting traders’ expectations, along with a history of price movements over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,953, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3,953. This provides a clear overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding future interest rates.

Currently, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts for the SOFR rate in October 2026 vary, but generally center around expectations of a moderate rate. This market allows for a different form of forecasting – one driven by incentives and the collective judgment of traders. While traditional polls and expert opinions offer valuable insights, the odds reflected in this market represent a real-money view of potential outcomes. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding economic conditions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOFR rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market expectations. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price levels, also indicates the level of conviction behind those expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official SOFR rate for October 14, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All other outcomes will settle to 0. Traders should monitor official sources for the final rate announcement to understand the resolution of this market.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Key indicators like inflation reports, employment data, and Federal Reserve policy announcements will be closely watched by traders. Unexpected changes in these areas could lead to shifts in expectations for future interest rates, and therefore, adjustments in the odds. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions also have the potential to influence the SOFR rate and, consequently, the trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential price movements.