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SOFR for October 13, 2026
kalshi

What will SOFR be on October 21, 2026?

Volume:
$7,103

Exactly 3.89%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.89% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.89%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.85% or Below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,600
N/A
N/A
$1,600
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.86%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,094
N/A
N/A
$1,094
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,794
N/A
N/A
$1,794
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$311
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% or Above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a key benchmark interest rate used in financial markets, reflecting the average overnight repurchase agreement rate secured by U.S. Treasury securities. Predicting SOFR for a specific future date involves analyzing economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and market expectations. These markets allow participants to bet on whether the rate will fall within certain precise thresholds, offering a granular view of future interest rate movements.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the initially reported SOFR for October 13, 2026, taken from the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” table under the “Rate (%)” column. All markets share this underlying data source, and later revisions to the reported rate are disregarded. Seven distinct outcome conditions are evaluated: if the rate is at most 3.85%, exactly 3.86%, exactly 3.87%, exactly 3.88%, exactly 3.89%, exactly 3.90%, or at least 3.91%, each corresponding to a separate market resolving to Yes. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the reported rate meets its specific condition, with no market influencing the resolution of another.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect what traders believe about the SOFR rate, based on their own research and insights. It's common to see differences between these odds and traditional analyst forecasts, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and are constantly updated with new data. If analysts generally predict a certain range for the SOFR rate, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree with that assessment, and to what degree. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or interpretations of economic indicators.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at prices determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific SOFR rate, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers prices and probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly reflect new information and changing expectations about the future SOFR rate.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual SOFR rate for October 13, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the SOFR rate, based on the contract they held. The specific rate used for resolution will be the one published by relevant financial authorities, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements as the resolution date approaches.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, such as interest rate adjustments or quantitative tightening, would be major catalysts. Unexpected inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth figures could also shift expectations for the SOFR rate. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions can also play a role, influencing investor sentiment and risk appetite. Any news that alters the perceived path of monetary policy is likely to cause movement in this market.