TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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SOFR at end of Q2 2026
kalshi

SOFR at end of Q2 2026

Volume:
$75,520

Above 3.75%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.75% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 7:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.75%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,498
N/A
N/A
$13,830
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,219
N/A
N/A
$18,801
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,804
N/A
N/A
$20,884
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether the Secured Overnight Financing Rate will exceed 3.75% by the end of June 2026, based on the first published SOFR value for the final U.S. business-day reference date of Q2 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that SOFR closes above 3.75% stands at 10.0%, while the probability it exceeds 5.00% is 6.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official SOFR value published for June 30, 2026, with the outcome hinging on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and economic conditions leading up to that final business day of Q2 2026.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business day of Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026). Each outcome specifies a threshold: above 3.75%, above 4.25%, or above 5.00%. The market resolves to Yes for any outcome whose threshold is below the actual published SOFR rate. If the actual rate is 3.75% or lower, all outcomes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

The SOFR at end of Q2 2026 market resolves on Jul 2, 2026, marking the end of the second quarter. Resolution is determined by the official SOFR rate published by the Federal Reserve for that date. The contract settles based on whether the final SOFR fixing meets or exceeds the 3.75% threshold specified in the binary outcome. Traders holding positions through resolution will receive payouts according to the actual rate published by the Fed's official data source. Until that date, the market remains open for trading, allowing participants to adjust positions as new economic data and policy signals emerge.

SOFR pricing is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy signals, inflation reports, and employment data. Unexpected CPI or PCE readings could shift expectations about rate-cut timing and magnitude, moving the market sharply. Fed communications—including FOMC statements, Chair Powell testimony, and dot-plot projections—directly influence trader positioning on near-term rates. Recession indicators, wage growth, and geopolitical shocks affecting financial conditions also matter. Quarterly GDP revisions and credit-market stress could prompt traders to reprice the likelihood of SOFR remaining above 3.75%. As we approach mid-2026, actual Fed actions and real-time economic data will be the primary drivers of contract value.