TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:07 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Serbia's dominant political party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), will aim to maintain its influence in the parliamentary election. The markets evaluate whether the SNS-led coalition can secure a decisive victory, measured by specific margins over the nearest competing electoral lists.
Kalshi
These markets resolve if the SNS-led list's margin of victory meets or exceeds thresholds of ≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, ≥20%, or ≥25%. The margin is calculated as the SNS-led list's vote share minus the vote share of the second-placed list if SNS leads, or the top finisher's share if SNS loses. Vote share is derived from certified results, using total votes cast including invalid ballots. Multiple SNS-led lists, if registered, have their votes combined. Thresholds are inclusive of their lower bounds with a maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An unresolved tie for first place triggers proportional payouts for zero-containing ranges, while others resolve No. Certified election results and conduct rules also apply.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to analyst forecasts, as those projections vary widely and often focus on seat counts rather than margin of victory. However, a significant divergence between the prediction market and expert opinions could indicate that traders possess unique information or have a different interpretation of available data. Tracking this difference can be a useful signal for understanding the potential accuracy of both the market and the analysts’ predictions regarding the Serbian election. It’s important to remember that this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different margin of victory ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the SNS-led list’s likely performance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing perceptions of the election’s trajectory.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the actual margin of victory achieved by the SNS-led list, as calculated by the difference between their vote share and the vote share of the next highest-performing list. The final outcome will be determined by the official election authority's published results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 25, 2026. Major political developments, such as shifts in party leadership, significant policy announcements, or unexpected endorsements, could all impact trader sentiment. Economic indicators, like unemployment rates or GDP growth, might also play a role, as they could influence voter preferences. Furthermore, any major geopolitical events or changes in public opinion, as reflected in polling data, could lead to shifts in the odds for this market. Unexpected campaign gaffes or scandals involving key candidates could also trigger price movements.
