TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on March 26?
Volume:
$2,959
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Silver (XAGUSD) price moves up or down on March 26, 2026. Kalshi offers 43 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold at the 5 PM EDT close. Polymarket offers a single comparative market: whether March 26's close exceeds the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use entirely different resolution methodologies: Kalshi employs absolute price thresholds, while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. The same price outcome on March 26 can produce contradictory resolutions across platforms.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent risk profiles. Kalshi's 43 markets create a granular price ladder; Polymarket's single market depends on March 25's close, which is unknown at prediction time. Hedge accordingly or choose the platform matching your directional conviction.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 43 independent binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold. Resolution: YES if 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT March 26, 2026 exceeds the stated threshold; NO otherwise. All thresholds reference the same timestamp and data source (1-minute candle close). Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on March 26, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single comparative market. Resolution: UP if March 26 close > prior trading day close; DOWN if March 26 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal, no trade, or either day is not a trading day. Uses Pyth 1-minute candle close at 5 PM ET as primary source, with CME COMEX Silver Futures as fallback. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on March 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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