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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 26?
kalshi
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 26?

Volume:
$163,862

above $58.99

 - Kalshi

above $58.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $58.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,342
N/A
N/A
$7,583
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,454
N/A
N/A
$13,482
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $46.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,340
N/A
N/A
$6,839
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $53.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,169
N/A
N/A
$5,812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,384
N/A
N/A
$1,555
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 26?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $44.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,102
N/A
N/A
$4,096
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $51.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,742
N/A
N/A
$2,820
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $54.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,900
N/A
N/A
$2,053
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $52.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,557
N/A
N/A
$2,015
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $47.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,188
N/A
N/A
$2,166
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $55.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,653
N/A
N/A
$600
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $50.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
$1,404
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $45.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$803
N/A
N/A
$802
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $49.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$773
N/A
N/A
$772
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $48.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$766
N/A
N/A
$754
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $59.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,838
N/A
N/A
$5,490
Settled
No
kalshi

above $73.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,139
N/A
N/A
$10,372
Settled
No
kalshi

above $70.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,439
N/A
N/A
$7,426
Settled
No
kalshi

above $61.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,642
N/A
N/A
$4,211
Settled
No
kalshi

above $60.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,966
N/A
N/A
$2,488
Settled
No
kalshi

above $65.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,200
N/A
N/A
$1,087
Settled
No
kalshi

above $62.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,205
N/A
N/A
$805
Settled
No
kalshi

above $69.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,002
N/A
N/A
$1,650
Settled
No
kalshi

above $63.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,844
N/A
N/A
$545
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group asks whether the silver price (XAGUSD) will be higher or lower on June 26, 2026 compared to the prior trading day's close. Kalshi presents 40 redundant yes-only conditions at various price thresholds, while Polymarket asks a simple directional comparison question. The two platforms use fundamentally different resolution methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: 40 conditions all resolve to Yes at different price thresholds with no defined No outcome or baseline. Polymarket is a coherent directional comparison market. The two platforms are asking fundamentally different questions and cannot be reconciled.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as specified. It defines only Yes outcomes across a range of prices but never specifies what price level or condition triggers No. Polymarket's market is standard and resolvable: it compares June 26 close to the prior trading day close. Trade Polymarket only; escalate Kalshi to platform support for clarification.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 redundant yes-only conditions at price thresholds from 44.99 to 83.99 USD/oz. No baseline price, no No outcome defined, no reference to prior day or directional comparison. Market structure is incomplete and logically broken. Key Quote: All 40 conditions follow the pattern 'If the close price...is above [X] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Directional comparison: Up if June 26 close > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close at 4:59 PM ET (or last valid price before that). Includes fallback to CME COMEX Silver Futures if Pyth data unavailable. Clear, coherent, and resolvable. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver at 5:00 PM EDT on June 26, 2026, measured in USD per troy ounce. The candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the closing price exceeds its corresponding threshold, ranging from above $44.99 to above $83.99 USD/t.oz.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders, often incorporating forward-looking signals faster than consensus analyst calls. Unlike traditional forecasts, which rely on models and historical data, this market embeds live information about Fed policy, inflation expectations, and industrial demand shifts. Traders who profit from accurate silver direction have strong incentives to price in breaking news and geopolitical developments. Comparing this market's odds to major bank commodity research or mining analyst reports can reveal where the crowd sees edge—or where contrarian positioning may offer value.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rule sets, liquidity pools, and user demographics. Kalshi's structured contract may define the silver close price threshold differently than Polymarket's binary up-or-down framing, creating subtle settlement interpretation gaps. Liquidity depth and trader composition also vary; one venue may attract more institutional hedgers while the other draws retail directional bets. These structural differences mean the same underlying event can trade at different implied probabilities, creating opportunities for cross-platform traders to arbitrage the spread.

Federal Reserve policy announcements and inflation data releases are primary catalysts, as rising real rates typically pressure precious metals. Geopolitical tensions, dollar strength, and industrial demand shifts also drive silver volatility. Mining supply disruptions, central bank purchases, and shifts in ETF inflows can trigger sharp repricing. Economic recession fears often boost safe-haven demand, while stronger-than-expected growth may weigh on the metal. Traders monitoring this market should watch macro calendars, currency moves, and equity market sentiment for early signals of directional conviction changes.