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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16?
kalshi
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16?

Volume:
$157,196

above $70

 - Kalshi

above $70 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,510
N/A
N/A
$8,378
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,344
N/A
N/A
$7,212
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,333
N/A
N/A
$9,654
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,731
N/A
N/A
$8,121
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,703
N/A
N/A
$9,620
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,848
N/A
N/A
$7,636
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,507
N/A
N/A
$4,787
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,356
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,162
N/A
N/A
$943
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$669
N/A
N/A
$669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$515
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$343
N/A
N/A
$341
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
$277
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
$178
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$152
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $70.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,309
N/A
N/A
$6,224
Settled
No
kalshi

above $70.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,524
N/A
N/A
$7,814
Settled
No
kalshi

above $70.75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,568
N/A
N/A
$6,108
Settled
No
kalshi

above $71.75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,833
N/A
N/A
$6,152
Settled
No
kalshi

above $72

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,497
N/A
N/A
$5,613
Settled
No
kalshi

above $72.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,378
N/A
N/A
$6,302
Settled
No
kalshi

above $71

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,890
N/A
N/A
$1,061
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether silver (XAGUSD) price moves up or down on June 16, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold at the 5:00 PM EDT close. Polymarket offers a single relative-change market comparing June 16's close to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a fixed timestamp (5:00 PM EDT 1-minute candle), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison. These are structurally different resolution methodologies that will not produce aligned outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket silver markets are correlated. Kalshi offers granular threshold betting; Polymarket offers pure directional relative change. Choose your platform based on your thesis: absolute price targets (Kalshi) or relative momentum (Polymarket). Monitor both Pyth and CME COMEX data sources, as Polymarket can fall back to CME if Pyth fails.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold. Resolves YES if XAGUSD 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM EDT on June 16, 2026 is above the specified threshold (66.00 to 75.75 USD/t.oz). Each market is independent. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on June 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [X] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market using relative comparison. Resolves UP if June 16 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close value from 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle, with fallback to CME COMEX official close if Pyth data unavailable. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 16, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 16, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 16, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for silver on June 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $66.00 to $75.75 USD per troy ounce, each in $0.25 increments. The close price represents the final price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source at the designated time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill distributed trader knowledge into a single probability, often diverging from consensus analyst price targets. While traditional forecasters may publish point estimates or ranges based on macroeconomic models, this market reflects real-money positions—traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Prediction markets typically incorporate faster-moving sentiment around Fed policy, inflation data, and industrial demand shifts than published analyst reports. For silver specifically, market odds can shift sharply on energy prices, currency moves, and safe-haven flows, sometimes outpacing slower-updating research consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market-making rules, liquidity pools, and user bases, creating natural price discovery gaps. Kalshi's structured contract design and regulatory framework may attract institutional hedgers, while Polymarket's AMM-style mechanics draw retail traders and crypto-native participants. Arbitrage friction—withdrawal delays, fee structures, and platform-specific slippage—prevents instant convergence. Additionally, different user cohorts may hold divergent views on silver's macro drivers, leading one venue to price in inflation hedging demand more aggressively than the other.

Federal Reserve policy announcements and inflation data releases are primary catalysts—dovish signals typically boost precious metals, while hawkish surprises can pressure them. Industrial demand shifts, particularly in electronics and solar manufacturing, directly affect silver fundamentals. Geopolitical tensions, currency strength (especially USD weakness), and equity market selloffs often trigger safe-haven inflows into silver. Additionally, mining supply disruptions, central bank purchases, and shifts in investment fund positioning can create sharp repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously, adjusting positions as new information emerges.