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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15?
kalshi
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15?

Volume:
$128,808

above $69.25

 - Kalshi

above $69.25 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $69.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,914
N/A
N/A
$8,478
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,702
N/A
N/A
$4,983
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,233
N/A
N/A
$4,460
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,887
N/A
N/A
$1,960
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,871
N/A
N/A
$1,297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $69.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,567
N/A
N/A
$1,908
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,189
N/A
N/A
$1,305
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $65.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,051
N/A
N/A
$1,850
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,778
N/A
N/A
$1,032
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $65.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,718
N/A
N/A
$1,649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,497
N/A
N/A
$1,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,484
N/A
N/A
$1,054
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $67.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,458
N/A
N/A
$1,187
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $65

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,429
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$992
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,035
N/A
N/A
$728
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $66.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$990
N/A
N/A
$988
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $64.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$795
N/A
N/A
$740
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $62.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$722
N/A
N/A
$722
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $68.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$701
N/A
N/A
$549
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $63.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$498
N/A
N/A
$498
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $62.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$491
N/A
N/A
$491
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $63.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $64.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group asks whether Silver (XAGUSD) will trade higher or lower on June 15, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 identical yes/no conditions tied to specific price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT, while Polymarket frames the same date as a directional comparison against the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT; Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison at 4:59 PM ET. These are distinct settlement mechanics that will not always produce aligned outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi bets on silver reaching specific price levels; Polymarket bets on directional movement from the prior close. A silver price of 65.50 USD/t.oz on June 15 would resolve YES on Kalshi (multiple thresholds) but could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if June 14's close was above 65.50. Confirm your market intent before entry.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Absolute price threshold model. All 40 conditions resolve YES if the 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT exceeds the stated threshold (ranging 62.00–71.75 USD/t.oz). No reference to prior day or relative movement. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [X] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Relative day-over-day comparison model. Resolves UP if June 15 close > prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close from 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle, with CME COMEX SI futures fallback. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on June 15, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for silver on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $62.00 to $71.75 USD per troy ounce, each in $0.25 increments. Each threshold represents a separate binary outcome: if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. The close price for any 1-minute candlestick represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent real money at stake, making them a forward-looking consensus distinct from traditional analyst price targets. Traders on this market are incentivized to price in all available information—Fed policy, industrial demand, geopolitical supply shocks, and technical levels—in near-real time. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, often lag market moves and reflect individual firm bias. This market's odds typically converge toward consensus faster than published research updates, especially as the resolution date approaches. Comparing the two can reveal where professional forecasters and decentralized traders diverge on silver's near-term trajectory.

Silver prices are sensitive to US dollar strength, real interest rates, and industrial demand signals from manufacturing PMIs and construction data. Geopolitical tensions affecting mining supply, central bank policy announcements, and inflation expectations all carry weight. Technical chart breaks above or below key resistance levels often trigger momentum trades. Earnings from major silver producers and changes in ETF inflows can shift sentiment quickly. Watch the US economic calendar, Fed communications, and any supply disruptions in major mining regions. These catalysts typically drive the largest single-day moves in this market.