TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $65.99
- Kalshi
Above $65.99 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 31, 2026
Closed: Sep 4, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group determines whether the closing price of silver (XAGUSD) on August 31, 2026, will be higher or lower than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day. The outcome depends on precise price comparisons using Pyth data, with specific handling for ties and non-trading days.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Settlement date and comparison methodology mismatch between Polymarket (relative price change) and Kalshi (absolute threshold)Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as equivalent. Polymarket resolves based on price direction relative to the prior trading day, while Kalshi resolves against a fixed series of price thresholds on a different date.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to Up if August 31, 2026 close > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth closing prices at 4:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if September 04, 2026 close exceeds any of 46.99, 47.99, ..., 85.99 USD/t.oz thresholds; otherwise No. Uses 5:00 PM EDT 1-minute candle.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on August 31, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for silver at 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2026. If the price exceeds any specified threshold (from $46.99 to $85.99 USD per troy ounce), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price represents the final trade price at the end of the minute preceding the specified timestamp — for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trades from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM, closing at 5:00:00 PM. If the data source fails to publish a price for the specified time, the most recent available price will be used for settlement.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect collective trader sentiment, often differing from traditional analyst forecasts that weigh fundamentals like supply, demand, and macroeconomic trends. In this market, the probability split shows where retail participants expect silver to trade by the close. Analysts may focus more on inventory reports or currency impacts, while traders react instantly to news and price action.
Key signals include economic data releases, central bank announcements, geopolitical developments affecting commodities, and shifts in industrial demand for silver. Any surprise news on U.S. monetary policy or changes in silver ETF holdings could also cause rapid re-pricing in this market as traders adjust their expectations ahead of the deadline.
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