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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$77,043

Above $63.75

 - Kalshi

Above $63.75 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $63.75

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,112
N/A
N/A
$2,474
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $64

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,492
N/A
N/A
$1,015
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $63.50

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,057
N/A
N/A
$2,719
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $64.50

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,477
N/A
N/A
$1,760
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $64.75

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,726
N/A
N/A
$1,509
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $65

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,689
N/A
N/A
$1,168
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $64.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,633
N/A
N/A
$619
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $65.50

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,564
N/A
N/A
$1,964
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $63.25

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,295
N/A
N/A
$1,595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $65.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,286
N/A
N/A
$817
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $63

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,577
N/A
N/A
$1,215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $62.50

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,466
N/A
N/A
$713
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $62.75

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,028
N/A
N/A
$539
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $62.25

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$635
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $62

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
$492
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $61.50

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$495
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $61.75

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$467
N/A
N/A
$386
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $61.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
$246
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $61

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
$213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $59.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $60.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $60.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $65.75

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,300
N/A
N/A
$2,122
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $66

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,864
N/A
N/A
$3,879
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the closing price of Silver (XAGUSD) on August 10, 2026, will be higher or lower than a specific threshold or previous closing price, depending on the platform rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution logic: Polymarket uses relative price comparison while Kalshi uses multiple absolute thresholdsHero tip: Traders should avoid cross-platform hedging as these markets will likely resolve differently. Focus on one platform based on your preferred resolution methodology.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if August 10 close > prior trading day close; "Down" if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Pyth closing prices at 4:59 PM ET.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if August 10 close > any of 39 specified thresholds from $59.00 to $68.75 USD/t.oz. at 5:00 PM EDT
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on August 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist, each with a distinct threshold price level for silver. All markets resolve based on the closing price of the one-minute candlestick for silver at 5:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2026. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used to determine the outcome. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the closing price exceeds its specific threshold; otherwise, it resolves to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Silver price movement market dashboard aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of silver ending higher or lower. It displays real-time odds, volume of $77,043, and 24-hour volume of $47,358, giving you a consensus view of market sentiment for this commodity event.

Key signals include Federal Reserve policy updates, shifts in industrial demand, currency movements, and geopolitical tensions affecting commodity flows. Any surprise economic data release or change in trading volume on major exchanges can also cause rapid swings in this market as traders adjust their positions ahead of the August deadline.