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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 6?
kalshi
polymarket

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 6?

Volume:
$34,151

above 70.75

 - Kalshi

above 70.75 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 6, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above 70.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,410
N/A
N/A
$1,217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 71.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,963
N/A
N/A
$979
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 70.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,952
N/A
N/A
$1,776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 71

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,340
N/A
N/A
$1,097
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 72.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
$657
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 72

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$878
N/A
N/A
$729
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 69.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$822
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 72.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$723
N/A
N/A
$399
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$568
N/A
N/A
$380
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 69.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
$353
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 70.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
$265
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 71.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 71.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 68.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$271
N/A
N/A
$260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 68.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$259
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 68

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
$212
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 68.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 69

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 69.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 75.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,377
N/A
N/A
$2,288
Settled
No
kalshi

above 75.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,872
N/A
N/A
$1,582
Settled
No
kalshi

above 73.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,777
N/A
N/A
$1,450
Settled
No
kalshi

above 73

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,586
N/A
N/A
$1,017
Settled
No
kalshi

above 73.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,384
N/A
N/A
$717
Settled
No
kalshi

above 72.75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,207
N/A
N/A
$898
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Silver (XAGUSD) closes higher or lower on April 6, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 granular price-level markets (each resolving Yes if price exceeds a specific threshold), while Polymarket offers a single relative-change market (Up if April 6 close > prior trading day close). The two platforms measure fundamentally different outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different outcomes: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a fixed timestamp (5 PM EDT April 6, 2026), while Polymarket uses relative price change (April 6 close vs. prior trading day close). These are structurally incompatible settlement logics.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are threshold-based; Polymarket is momentum-based. A trader bullish on silver's absolute level should focus on Kalshi; a trader betting on day-over-day movement should focus on Polymarket. The two markets will not necessarily move in lockstep.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 granular Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 6, 2026 exceeds a specific price threshold (68.00 to 77.75 USD/t.oz). All reference the same timestamp and data source (Pyth 1-minute candle). Resolution is binary per threshold: either the price clears it (Yes) or it does not (No).
  • Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up if April 6, 2026 close > prior trading day close, Down if lower, or 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. Source is Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at 5 PM ET, with CME COMEX Silver Futures as fallback if Pyth data is unavailable. Resolution depends on a comparison, not an absolute level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.