TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 6?
Volume:
$34,151
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Silver (XAGUSD) closes higher or lower on April 6, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 granular price-level markets (each resolving Yes if price exceeds a specific threshold), while Polymarket offers a single relative-change market (Up if April 6 close > prior trading day close). The two platforms measure fundamentally different outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different outcomes: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a fixed timestamp (5 PM EDT April 6, 2026), while Polymarket uses relative price change (April 6 close vs. prior trading day close). These are structurally incompatible settlement logics.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets are threshold-based; Polymarket is momentum-based. A trader bullish on silver's absolute level should focus on Kalshi; a trader betting on day-over-day movement should focus on Polymarket. The two markets will not necessarily move in lockstep.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 granular Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 6, 2026 exceeds a specific price threshold (68.00 to 77.75 USD/t.oz). All reference the same timestamp and data source (Pyth 1-minute candle). Resolution is binary per threshold: either the price clears it (Yes) or it does not (No).
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up if April 6, 2026 close > prior trading day close, Down if lower, or 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. Source is Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at 5 PM ET, with CME COMEX Silver Futures as fallback if Pyth data is unavailable. Resolution depends on a comparison, not an absolute level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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