TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 24?
Volume:
$5,511
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether silver (SI) futures prices move up or down on March 24, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single binary market comparing the CME settlement price to the previous trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible price sources and measurement methodologies. Kalshi references a specific 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket uses official CME settlement prices determined by CME's proprietary methodology, which may differ from intraday prices and occur at a different time.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying data sources. A Kalshi market resolving Yes (price above threshold at 5 PM EDT) does not guarantee Polymarket resolves Up (CME settlement higher than prior day). CME settlement prices are often calculated differently than last-traded or intraday prices. Monitor CME's settlement methodology and timing separately from intraday price action.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each with a distinct price threshold. All reference the 1-minute candlestick close price for silver at 5 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. Thresholds range from $63 to $72.75 in $0.25 increments. Each market resolves Yes if that specific threshold is exceeded, No otherwise.
- Polymarket: Single binary market comparing official CME settlement prices day-over-day. Resolves Up if March 24 CME Active Month settlement > March 23 CME Active Month settlement. Uses CME Group's official settlement methodology and publishes on CME's settlement page. Active Month is the nearest non-spot delivery-cycle month (March, May, July, September, December).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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