TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 13?
Volume:
$18,099
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares silver (SI) futures price movement on March 13, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on whether the CME settlement price for the Active Month silver futures contract is higher or lower than the previous trading day's settlement. Kalshi uses a single 1-minute candlestick open price at 5 PM EDT on March 13 against multiple fixed thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure incompatible price points using different methodologies. Polymarket uses CME official settlement price (day-over-day comparison); Kalshi uses a single 1-minute candlestick open at 5 PM EDT against 40 fixed thresholds. These markets will not correlate and cannot be cross-hedged.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket is a relative day-over-day comparison; Kalshi is an absolute price level test at a specific time. Monitor CME settlement publication timing (must occur by 11:59 PM ET next day on Polymarket) and ensure Kalshi's 5 PM EDT data source is reliable. Clarify Kalshi's No resolution condition if the open price is below $63.49.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves Up if CME Active Month silver futures settlement price on March 13, 2026 is higher than the previous trading day's settlement price for the same contract month. Resolves Down if lower. Uses official CME settlement price only; intraday prices do not count. If Active Month changes between the two days, the same contract from the previous day is used for comparison. If CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET of the next trading day, resolves 50-50.
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if the 1-minute candlestick open price for silver at 5 PM EDT on March 13, 2026 exceeds any of 40 price thresholds ($63.49, $64.49, $65.49... up to $102.49). All 40 conditions trigger Yes. No explicit No condition is stated; resolution if price is below $63.49 is ambiguous.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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