TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the precise closing price of silver at a specific moment, reflecting immediate market conditions influenced by supply dynamics, geopolitical factors, and investor sentiment.
The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for silver on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. Each market has a distinct threshold price, and if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes.' The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (i.e., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM). If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Currently, it's difficult to make a direct comparison between the predictions reflected in this market and those of traditional financial analysts. While analysts offer price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents a probabilistic view of what will happen, aggregating the opinions of many traders. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies, risk appetites, and access to information. It's often insightful to observe whether this market's implied probabilities converge with or diverge from prevailing analyst expectations as the resolution date approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different silver price outcomes. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the silver price and capitalizing on discrepancies between their own beliefs and the market's consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the silver price at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement price will be determined by a widely recognized and trusted source for precious metal pricing data. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct price range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake. The market’s resolution will reflect the actual silver price at the specified time.
Numerous factors could influence the silver price market between now and its resolution. Major economic indicators like inflation rates, interest rate decisions by central banks, and global economic growth forecasts are key drivers. Geopolitical events, such as trade wars or political instability, can also significantly impact silver's safe-haven demand. Industrial demand for silver, particularly in the technology and renewable energy sectors, will play a role. Unexpected supply disruptions, or significant shifts in investor sentiment towards precious metals, could also cause substantial price movements in this market.