TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the silver spot price at a specific moment on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. Silver is a precious metal traded globally, and its price fluctuates based on market supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors. The settlement uses the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick at the specified time.
Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for silver on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $57.00 to $66.75 USD per troy ounce, each in $0.25 increments. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants with skin in the game, whereas analyst predictions rely on models and historical data. Traders in this market are incentivized to price outcomes accurately; if their view differs from consensus analyst estimates, they profit by trading against the crowd. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated competitive accuracy against expert forecasts, particularly when the underlying event is measurable and the market has sufficient liquidity and participant diversity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform converts these orders into implied probabilities, displayed as a percentage chance for each outcome. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the price adjusts in real time, ensuring the market reflects the latest collective assessment of where silver will trade at the resolution time.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, at which point the actual silver price will be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by where silver trades at the specified time on that date. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed from authoritative market data, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event, pending final verification.
Silver prices respond to macroeconomic shifts, including changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and US dollar strength. Industrial demand fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policy announcements can all trigger significant moves. Supply disruptions, mining output reports, and shifts in investment demand from ETFs or institutional buyers also influence the market. Additionally, broader equity market volatility and safe-haven flows into precious metals during risk-off periods may push silver prices higher or lower before this market settles.