TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$113,840,372

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,936,628

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,735,667,054

505,688

Markets across

37,539

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,849

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
polymarket

Will shipping be targeted in Hormuz?

Sep 30, 2026, 7:58 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$57,428
Volume 24h:
$38,734
1,001%
Liquidity:
$1,773
97%
Open interest:
$2,103N/A

October 5

 - Polymarket

October 5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98.7¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 5

Trade
93%
Yes 98.7¢No 49.1¢
47.8¢
$7
$999
0%
2%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 4

Trade
93%
Yes 99.7¢No 63.7¢
63.4¢
$68
$1,284
0%
6%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 23

Trade
51%
5%
Yes 50¢No 86¢
36¢
$74
$83
56%
N/A
N/A
20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 24

Trade
50%
2%
Yes 66¢No 46¢
12¢
$664
$468
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 22

Trade
45%
4%
Yes 69¢No 55¢
24¢
$307
$357
23%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 15

Trade
12%
Yes 82¢No 98¢
80¢
$45
$1,557
0%
22%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 19

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 4.9¢No 99.8¢
4.7¢
$36
$600
4%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 25

Trade
33%
59%
Yes 92¢No 50¢
42¢
$61
$20
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 11

Trade
10%
Yes 99.5¢No 73.2¢
72.7¢
$74
$919
0%
6%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 26

Trade
94%
2%
Yes 94¢No 94¢
88¢
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 27

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 94¢
87¢
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 28

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 94¢
87¢
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 29

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 94¢
87¢
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 20h 21m
active
polymarket

October 30

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 95¢
88¢
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 20h
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 95¢
88¢
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

October 13

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 6

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 2

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 12

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 7

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 1

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 16

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 3

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 20

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 18

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Hormuz shipping attacks market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of an attack occurring in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the total volume for this market is $57,428, with $4,149 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to monitor market sentiment and track changes in predictions as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the prediction community assesses the risk of maritime disruption.

Comparing prediction market odds to sportsbook odds can reveal interesting insights into public perception. While sportsbooks primarily cater to sports enthusiasts, this market attracts a broader range of participants interested in geopolitical risk. It's common to see differences in probabilities, as prediction markets often incorporate information from diverse sources and expert opinions more rapidly than traditional betting venues. However, both reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of an event, and significant discrepancies may present potential arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an attack is likely, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence available. Trading volume and open interest also influence price discovery.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a successful attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has occurred within the specified timeframe. This includes confirmed incidents of damage or disruption to commercial vessels. The outcome will be assessed based on widely available news sources and official statements from relevant authorities, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. The market will then settle based on whether the event happened or not.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers would likely drive up the probability of an attack. Increased military presence in the Strait of Hormuz, or conversely, a withdrawal of naval assets, could also influence trading activity. Reports of heightened Iranian naval exercises or provocative actions by proxy groups would be key catalysts. Finally, any confirmed incidents of harassment or minor attacks on shipping could serve as warning signs and move the market accordingly.